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Taiwan critically analyses Ukraine resistance, appoints working group to study the war

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is strengthening relations with the US. She meets Damon M. Wilson, foreign policy expert in Taipei (Photo: Tsai Ing-wen/Twitter)

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought home fears of the Chinese doing the same to Taiwan. Now, the ever-alert islanders have appointed a working group to study the conflict and how Ukraine is holding the Russian forces at bay.

The Ministry of Defence has set up a working group to study Ukraine war tactics with a focus on the Ukrainian strategy. Taiwan is also in touch with the US regarding the same.

Taiwanese Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng told the media that the country has set up its own working group to study the conflict. He said that Taiwan was following Russia's poor military performance and also Ukraine's tactics, reports the South China Morning Post. He said that the Taiwan team studying the war includes academics from the National Defence University.

The minister also disclosed that the Taiwanese are not only discussing the war with the US "but also with other countries that have regular contacts with Taiwan". He added, "However, we will not make remarks rashly, but through internal discussions which are important, to get results that are helpful for building armaments and preparing for war”.

India Narrative spoke with Probal Dasgupta, author of ‘Watershed 1967: India’s Forgotten Victory over China’ about the ramifications of the war in the Taiwan Strait.

Dasgupta says: "China has been observing the evolving situation in the Ukraine war as a guide for its plans on Taiwan. It is also testing the West’s keenness and appetite on Taiwan, timing its sorties over the island and sending signals to its adversaries in the region. Meanwhile, former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who had been sanctioned by China, arrived in Taiwan and met local officials. His arrival signals American seriousness on Taiwan".

The army veteran also points out that Xi has emphatically spoken about his goal of 'one China, one system' but it is easier said than done due to America's abiding interests in Taiwan.

Writing in First Post, Dasgupta says: "American interests in Ukraine were recent and not deep. On the other hand, it was President Truman who intervened in June 1950 and ensured that China didn’t capture Taiwan. Seven decades of America’s political, economic and military support to Taiwan has nurtured its democratic credentials. The US also granted Taiwanese exporters access to American markets, enabling a smoother transition to a successful market economy. Taiwan, more than most states in Asia, reflects Western liberal value systems which make it appealing to American businessmen and politicians alike".

Taiwan was on heightened alert soon after the Russian invasion, owing to fears that the Russian action might influence China to do the same on Taiwan.

The tiny island, located across the Taiwan Strait barely 180 km from China, has faced Chinese wrath through incursions in its air space as well as violation of its territorial waters. This is besides the regular public announcements by top Chinese leadership threatening to take over Taiwan by military force. In 2021, a Chinese magazine brazenly published plans of how a Chinese assault on Taiwan will look like.

The Russian assault on Ukraine on February 24, ostensibly over NATO's eastward expansion, has been halted by Ukrainian resistance. Russian strategic goals, ones that catalysed the attack, are in doldrums in the David versus Goliath battle. Experts say that with the impasse in Ukraine, China may rethink about invading Taiwan, a confident US may extend larger support to Taipei and an emboldened Taiwan will fix loopholes in its strategy–learning from the Russian-Ukraine war.

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