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Estimates of high Covid death toll in India based on extrapolating US & Europe data, not on facts

Estimates of high Covid death toll in India based on extrapolating US and Europe data, not on facts

The Health Ministry on Thursday clarified that India has a robust system of recording deaths and media reports alleging that India’s toll of excess deaths during the pandemic “could be in millions” and terming the official COVID-19 death toll as ‘vastly undercounted’ are not backed by facts. Instead these estimates have been arrived at by extrapolating data based on the Covid-19 experience of US and European countries which is not relevant to India.

The Health Ministry has stated that given the robust and statute based Death Registration System in India, while some cases could go undetected as per the principles of Infectious Disease and its management, missing out on the deaths is unlikely. This could also be seen in the case fatality rate, which, as on 31st December 2020, stood at 1.45% and even after an unexpected surge observed in the second wave in April-May 2021, the case fatality rate today stands at 1.34%. All recording of deaths due to COVID is being done strictly in accordance with WHO guidelines, the Health Ministry said in a statement. 

In these news reports quoting findings from some recent studies, US & European countries’ age-specific infection fatality rates have been used to calculate excess deaths in India based on the sero-positivity, the health ministry statement said.

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The extrapolation of deaths has been done on an audacious assumption that the likelihood of any given infected person dying is the same across countries, dismissing the interplay between various direct and indirect factors such as race, ethnicity, genomic constitution of a population, previous exposure levels to other diseases and the associated immunity developed in that population, the statement points out.

Further, the reports assume that all the excess mortality figures are COVID deaths, which is not based on facts and totally fallacious. Excess mortality is a term used to describe an all-cause mortality figure and attributing these deaths to COVID-19 is completely misleading,  the health ministry has stated.

India has a thorough contact tracing strategy. All the primary contacts, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic are tested for COVID-19. The true detected cases are the ones that test positive with RT-PCR, which is the gold standard of COVID-19 test.  These patients have been receiving treatment and recovering from the disease.

Moreover, the reporting of daily new cases and deaths in India follows a bottom-up approach, where districts report the number of cases and deaths to the State Governments and to the Union Ministry on a continuous basis.

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As early as May 2020, to avoid inconsistency or confusion in the number of deaths being reported, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) issued ‘Guidance for appropriate recording of COVID-19 related deaths in India’ for correct recording of all deaths by States/UTs as per ICD-10 codes recommended by WHO for mortality coding.

In his statement in Rajya Sabha on Wednesday, Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya has refuted allegations of hiding COVID-19 deaths and said that the Central government only compiles and publishes data sent by the state governments.

The Union Health Ministry has been repeatedly advising States and UTs through formal communications, multiple video conferences and through deployment of Central teams for recording of deaths in accordance with laid down guidelines. The Health Ministry has also regularly emphasized the need for a robust reporting mechanism for monitoring district wise cases and deaths on a daily basis. States have been advised to conduct thorough audits in their hospitals and report any cases or deaths that could have been missed with a district and date-wise details so as to guide a data-driven decision making.

During the peak of the 2nd wave, the entire health system was focused on effective clinical management of cases requiring medical help, and correct reporting and recording could have been compromised which is also evident in a few states such as Maharashtra, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh reconciling their number of deaths recently.

In addition to this reporting, the robustness of statute based Civil Registration System (CRS) ensures all the births and deaths in the country get registered. The CRS follows a process of data collection, cleaning, collating and publishing the numbers, which although is a long time-consuming process, but ensures no deaths are missed out. For the expanse and the amplitude of the activity, the numbers are usually published the next year.