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As retail inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index rose to 6.30 per cent in May compared to 4.23 per cent recorded&nbsp;in April, analysts said that the Reserve Bank of India may be forced to increase interest rates as it is significantly higher than&nbsp;the central bank&rsquo;s inflation target of 4 per cent&nbsp;with a 2 percentage point margin provided on either side.</p>
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Until supply chain disruption, caused by the Covid 19-induced localised lockdowns, are managed and addressed immediately, the RBI would be forced to increase interest rates or change its stance to combat inflation.</p>
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A State Bank of India (SBI) analysis said that otherwise RBI runs the risk of being seen as a mute spectator which in turn would impair its credibility in fighting inflation.</p>
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The analysis said that in the coming months, domestic inflation trends are likely to raise anxiety levels in the RBI and the monetary policy committee (MPC). &ldquo;Driven by several global and domestic factors, inflation may remain elevated in the coming months,&rdquo; the analysis said.</p>
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SBI also said that specifically, the faster than anticipated and robust recovery in some of the advanced countries is likely to exert upward pressure on international commodity prices, including oil. &ldquo;The latter being an intermediate good in leading emerging economies, it would generate cost push inflation,&rdquo; it said, adding that the second wave of the Covid 19 pandemic which led to localised lockdowns disrupted supply chains even in rural areas. This will manifest in rising prices on essentials.&nbsp;</p>
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