Despite the ongoing Covid crisis, India remains the greatest rising power on the planet with its number of fundamental political, economic and demographic strengths set to make it one of the most powerful countries in the world.
Writing in Arab News, Dr. John C. Hulsman, head of a prominent global political risk consulting firm, says that long-term political stability and an economic and demographic liftoff already in progress make India the rising power in today’s world — one that will only grow in importance as the years progress.
Hulsman lists three factors that make India secure in a way that other developing countries can only envy.
First, he says, India’s political power structure is remarkably stable. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party decisively won the 2019 elections and decisively runs two-thirds of state governments, with its allies at many places. This as the main opposition Congress party is merely a shadow of its former self.
Second, Hulsman says, India’s demography affords it a mighty relative advantage. With more than 50 percent of India’s population below the age of 25 and 65 percent under the age of 35, India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation by 2024.
"In 2020, the average age in India was 29, compared to 37 in rapidly aging China and 48 in elderly Japan. All of this data underlines the key economic reality that the country is uniquely set to enjoy a generation’s-worth of booming catchup growth, even as it is surrounded by aging great powers such as the EU, Russia, Japan, the US and China," he writes.
Third, the writer argues that India’s economic numbers, too often obscured by the story of the day, simply do not lie. By 2050, it is estimated that India will account for a startling 15 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP).
"Coming out of the Covid-19 economic abyss, the subcontinent is set for a golden era of renewed growth. While India’s GDP (as was true of most of the rest of the world) cratered by 8 percent in the pandemic-dominated year of 2020, the International Monetary Fund estimates India’s economy is on course to grow by an impressive 11.5 percent this year (the only major global economy predicted to experience double-digit growth) and 6.8 percent in 2022," Hulsman reflects.
Thus, India remains the rising power in today’s world — one that will only grow in importance as the years progress.
"Assuredly, there will often be chaos in the headlines and on the surface but, beneath this tumult, India’s enduring and essential political risk trajectory is decisively favorable. India’s adventures may not occur punctually, but they will undeniably come to pass," he concludes.
(The full article written by Dr. John C. Hulsman can be read here)
