Hopes have risen for the country’s policymakers, who are keeping a close watch on the country’s new Covid 19 cases. The daily rise in Coronavirus cases has shown signs of dropping continuously for over one week. An insider said that if the trend continues, the impact on the economy would not be severe.

“We are currently only in the second month of this financial year and if we are able to contain the virus spread at this stage, we will be in a position to make up for this loss in the later months,” Dilip Chenoy, secretary general, Ficci said.

“However, focus must be now on curbing the spread of the virus in the rural areas,” Chenoy told India Narrative. Spread of the virus ahead of the Kharif sowing season could mean a dent on food production.It would also impact rural economy, critical for India overall growth.

“Farmers’ congregations have added to the problem as many are getting infected and returning to their villages with the virus, spreading it further,” Vinod Kaul executive director, All India Rice Exporters’ Association said.

The steel sector, which was worried of production dropping as companies redirected their oxygen supply from their plants to hospitals when cities were hit by its shortage, are now hoping that the situation will be resolved sooner than expected. "The number of cases is dropping and the requirement for oxygen has eased, so we are hopeful that the shortage of oxygen will be resolved," an analyst said.

Silver lining

A Crisil report has said that though it is too early to call it a peak, India’s Covid-19 affliction curve has turned for the first time since the second wave began, with daily cases in the week ended May 16 falling 15 per cent sequentially. The major affected states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh have reported fewer new infections, it noted. On May 6, India reported 4.14 lakh new cases– the highest since the outbreak of the pandemic. The recovery rate has also improved to 84.8 per cent as of May 16 from 82.2 per cent on May 9.

A senior executive at a multinational company said that while the number of cases in India in the second wave has been “much higher than the first wave” many businesses had already shifted to a remote work mode, making it relatively easier for them to adjust this time. “We also need to understand that several factories have continued their operations despite the Covid 19 induced restrictions and lockdowns,” he said.