Recovery in India’s economy will pick up from July despite being hit in the first quarter of the current financial year due to the brutal second Covid 19 wave.
In an interview to news agency ANI, the government’s Chief Economic Adviser KV Subramanian, said that the pace of vaccination and the drop in daily infection rate will aid the economic revival. Subramanian also said that India will be able to achieve vaccination for all by December.
“The second wave of Covid-19 has affected the momentum of economic recovery. We expect a recovery in the economy from July. Now, several states have started removing many restrictions and if we speed up the vaccination drive in our country, our economy will start recovering,” Subramanian said.
Economic activities in the first quarter have been dented due to imposition of local lockdowns and other Covid 19 induced restrictions by several state governments as they battled a sharp rise in infection numbers.
"If we vaccinate people in three shifts each day, then, we can vaccinate 1 crore people in a day. This is definitely ambitious, but not impossible. I have taken both doses of vaccine and appeal to all to get themselves vaccinated as soon as possible," Subramanian said.
While most think tanks and ratings agencies had predicted a double-digit growth for India in 2021-22, many have slashed their projections. However, they said that the impact of the second wave will be limited and that the country’s long term growth story remained in-tact.
Moody's Investors Service recently said that India's economy will clock a 9.3 per cent growth in 2021-22.
"As of now, we expect the negative impact on economic output to be limited to the April to June quarter, followed by a strong rebound in the second half of the year," Moody's said.
Nomura too said that the impact of the second Covid 19 wave will have limited impact.
Meanwhile, as per provisional data released by the National Statistics Organisation India’s economy in 202-21 declined by 7.3 per cent as compared to an expansion of 4 per cent in 2019-20. While this is India’s worst economic performance in 40 years, the economic performance was much better than several projections made. “It is also important to remember that Covid 19 pandemic is not a regular affair. It has impacted the world and dented global growth. Given this scenario, India has done well,” an analyst said.