China’s increased military aggression on Taiwan is an attempt to pass a message to the world and especially India underscoring its authority at a time when global geopolitics is changing rapidly. Besides, Beijing would also use this as an opportunity to test waters and assess the level of world retaliation on such an occasion and also send an indirect missive to India to adhere to the One China policy.

While foreign policy analysts say that there may not be a direct military aggression despite increased presence of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) along the southeast coast, the perceived threat from Beijing is further fuels anti-China sentiments globally.

The recent military threat may not have any serious impact on the fledging India-Taiwan bilateral relations, but policymakers are keeping a close eye on the developments. India-China ties have nosedived in the last few months,, especially in the wake of the Galwan Valley clash.

<strong>India-Taiwan relations</strong>

Public opinion in India is greatly been in favor of Taiwan. Several stakeholders have also underlined the need to build close political as well as economic ties with the country.

Though New Delhi and Taipei do not have any formal diplomatic relations, on October 10, as Taiwan celebrated its national day, thousands of Indians took to the social media to commemorate the occasion which marks the separation of the island country’s separation from China.

Rajiv Dogra, former bureaucrat and an expert on foreign policy, said that though India-Taiwan ties are at a nascent stage, a military conflict between China and Taiwan could further lead to Indian public opinion tilting towards the island country.

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China could be worried as India is now looking to increase its trade ties with Taiwan. A substantial chunk of imports, which until now came from China, could now be sourced from Taiwan, sources said. In Taiwan’s "new southbound policy," India features prominently.

Shakti Sinha, former bureaucrat and director at the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Institute of Policy Research and International Studies, told IndiaNarrative.com that New Delhi must aim to cement its relations with Taipei. “Taiwan is a developed economy and a powerhouse of technology and we must establish good relations with the country,” Sinha pointed out. “Over the last few months, China’s focus on Taiwan has increased and the recent development (China’s military threat over Taiwan) is not isolated. It is also a way to give a message to the world and of course India.”

“It is not possible at this stage to say that China’s aggressive posturing currently will graduate to actual military attack. It may hopefully remain a pressure tactic at a time when the US is busy with Presidential election,” Dogra added.

Chinese Embassy asks Indian media to respect One China policy

Just ahead of the Taiwan’s National Day On October 7, the Chinese Embassy shot out a letter to journalists in India asking them to honor the One China policy. "All countries that have diplomatic relations with China should firmly honor their commitment to the One China policy, which is also the long-standing official position of the Indian government," the letter said, adding that the Indian media should stick to government's position of the One-China principle.

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“China’s brazen move also started a snowball effect of mutual goodwill between India and Taiwan that carried out throughout the week and has shown no signs of slowing,” The Diplomat wrote..